Table of Contents
Table of Contents
From Oil to Green Economy
INTRODUCTION
PARTE ONE
CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 3
PART TWO
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTER 5
CHAPTER 6
PART THREE
CHAPTER 7
CHAPTER 8
CHAPTER 9
BIBLIOGRAPHY
From Oil to Green Economy
“From Oil to Green Economy”
SIMONE MALACRIDA
This book, the first in an energy trilogy, stems from the need to reconcile, in a single structured writing, the different relationships that energy has to society, politics, economics, the environment and technology by presenting a wide-ranging panorama both in the analysis of each individual energy source and in the examination of global and local players. Free of ideological bias, it is characterized as a picture of the current situation to understand the future evolution of energy and society and to confront the inherent theme of complexity.
Simone Malacrida (1977)
Engineer and writer, has worked on research, finance, energy policy and industrial plants.
“Whatever people say, words and ideas can change the world.”
Prof. Keating played by Robin Williams in the film “Dead Poets Society”
ANALYTICAL INDEX
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INTRODUCTION
PARTE ONE
CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 3
PARTE TWO
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTER 5
CHAPTER 6
PARTE THREE
CHAPTER 7
CHAPTER 8
CHAPTER 9
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
In the literature there are thousands of books and publications concerning energy issues and resources and there are just as many about the world of energy research both for the theoretical and basic one and for the applied and industrial one. Each of these publications generally has different purposes and is aimed at different segments of the public, from collective disclosure to writings dedicated only to a small number of professionals. Despite the vast diffusion of analysis and elaboration of these topics, it is not usual to find a single structured text that contextually addresses the relationships between energy, research, geopolitics and the economy, a book that presents in a more extensive way, compared to a technical report, the reciprocal influences between these worlds, a discussion which, as it was conceived, is aimed, in a completely versatile way, both at the general public and at the specialists of the various sectors presented.
Usually, it is preferable to consider only one perspective angle, writing texts that argue about some energy sources, such as oil or nuclear energy or some link between energy and other issues, such as the environment or the economy.
What characterizes this writing is instead the exact opposite: the idea of a journey into the "energy planet" and therefore of a single platform so integrated and connected, as to make every single point of view inseparable.
In unfolding the topics of this book, the fundamental role that research plays in the main decisions of the energy question will be highlighted, going to influence the uses of every source and resource of energy, the resulting economic and geopolitical model and the relationships in general with society, culture and the environment. At the same time, it will be seen how the very use of energy sources influences research or how geopolitical balances and economic models intervene as fundamental parameters. One of the main conclusions will be that of a non-correlation between cause and effect, as every single subject becomes cause and effect at the same time.
On the other hand, one wonders why energy is considered a fundamental lever for profoundly and substantially changing the very rules at the basis of our daily life. If we think more deeply, energy is the basis of life itself. Without the energy coming from the Sun, life on this planet, the alternation of the seasons, the water cycle, agriculture and livestock would not be possible. Furthermore, every living thing, from bacteria to plants to animals to humans is made up of cells that need energy to carry out their activities. Finally, every human activity has been regulated and marked by energy since prehistoric times.
The energy theme is therefore, in itself, i.e. by its very nature, pervasive and totally intertwined with our society; you will have the clear certainty of this aspect, going into the path proposed below. Furthermore, speaking of energy, it is not possible to isolate a single point of view, it is unthinkable to look at the whole matter from a single perspective angle. All this strongly derives from the very essence of the energy question which is fully revealed in its intrinsic complexity, a theme which will be taken up several times throughout the book and which will find its own explanation only at the end of the same.
Dealing with the energy issue by forgetting some parts is literally "betraying" the soul of energy and, given that this book focuses precisely on a totally energetic planet, this hypothesis will not be taken into consideration.
Complexity and capillary diffusion are two different manifestations of the more general energy phenomenon which, precisely as such, involves all aspects of society and life and which has therefore increasingly become the central theme and the pivot around which to implement some decisions strategic for our future.
Consequently, the purpose of this essay will not be limited only to probing the relationship between energy and research, but will involve wider areas, making it clear how the energy question is the nodal point on which world public opinion, universities, businesses , individual states and supranational bodies will have to confront each other to establish the future of the planet and of our species, evaluating all the possible benefits and potential risks. Such a broad perspective constitutes a very compelling and arduous challenge, but it is certainly within the reach of the conscience and skills acquired by modern man at the dawn of this twenty-first century, above all if we think that a vital concept such as the ch'i defined precisely as that flow of energy that pervades the universe and every single human being, capable of giving a direction and a complete sense to the unfolding of daily actions.
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The structure of the book is deliberately centered following the pattern and logic set out above, in a paradigm of reciprocal relationships depicting both the author's forma mentis and the main thought that will return in several pages of the book, the idea of a single interconnection among the various elements that have been enumerated above.
All these aspects are so closely linked as to leave no room for a particular perspective vision, but it becomes necessary to incorporate them into a single conception of the whole. For these reasons, it is necessary to immediately reveal the supporting columns of this structure at the beginning, to allow a glimpse of the main concepts that are the foundation of these columns and to understand the architecture above the individual chapters and paragraphs.
The first part of the book focuses on the technical and numerical aspects of the energy issue, highlighting all the energy resources used with their respective percentages, the main producing and consuming countries, the trend of reserves and the major uses of all this enormous energy flow. This part has the express purpose of putting the numerical evidence on paper, debunking some artificially constructed myths or some deeply rooted beliefs even among insiders, while providing precise and clear indications on the energy future, without however interpreting these data in terms of "ideological" that is, in support of pre-established theses.
Those who look between the lines, easy as they are superfluous, will be disappointed for "labels", as the book was not written to support anti-nuclear or pro-nuclear, anti-environmental or pro-environmentalist, anti-oil or pro-oil ideas and so on. The firm belief is that the energy issue is too serious and fundamental to allow prejudgments to prevail.
On the other hand, incontrovertible data regarding each individual energy source will not be concealed, without falling into the "pro" or "against" scheme.
To facilitate the understanding and reading of the numbers relating to energy, the language used will be mostly aseptic and impartial, as befits a technical compendium supporting the tables, graphs and percentages presented.
As an authentic counterpart to this first section, the second part focuses on the relationship between energy and the various aspects of society, from politics to the economy, from daily life to the environmental ecosystem. In an antithetical way to what was done previously, the macro connections between increasingly vast topics that involve every aspect of our society will be taken into consideration. As an obvious consequence, even the style and language will have to undergo a radical change since the underlying topic is no longer connected to numerical data, but to reciprocal influences and relationships.
The third and final part will highlight the fact that the deep link between energy and research is not dependent on a single energy source; moreover, the identification of some pre-eminent players in the energy panorama and the brief proposals to be implemented at the various institutional levels will complete the picture.
As will often be noted, the main idea of this book lies in the belief that each of the three parts presented is neither independent nor complete when taken by itself. It is not possible to reduce the energy question to numbers alone, it is unthinkable to illustrate only the relationships between energy and society, because the resulting description would be incomplete, if one chooses a particular point of view. On the other hand, the exposition and treatment of the third part would be completely devoid of context and of an adequate framework if it does not have the first two sections. What distinguishes this paper from a "simple" position paper on energy research is precisely the presence of this dual context of introduction and background to the issues concerning the relationship between energy and research.
In any case, the treatment presented in any paragraph does not have the ambition and presumption of being exhaustive, complete and derived from first principles and, for this reason, there is a vast bibliography to refer to for each specific topic covered and for any further information on the matter.
After this brief overview, some fixed points and axes of investigation on which the book will build its structure should be proposed, as a sort of handbook and handbook for reading.
- The historic and still prominent role of fossil fuels on global energy numbers, with particular attention to the handover that will take place in the next few years between oil and natural gas.
- The need for a diversification of sources in a balanced energy mix, especially in relation to the potential of renewable energies.
- The main sectors of energy use and the connections with the no longer postponeable themes of energy efficiency and environmental impact.
- The future developments of the energy sector in the first half of this century, considering a model of gradual evolution or a possible energy revolution.
- The problem of the duration of energy reserves, the connection with geopolitics and the consequent development models adopted.
- The economic role of energy both in quantitative and qualitative terms.
- The relationships between the energy sector, society, history and the global environment, with a general view of sustainable development.
- The fundamental role of energy research for the economic, social, cultural and environmental future and the possible strands of basic interest.
- The main players in the energy question and their respective roles.
- The energy complexity and the proposals to be adopted at the various organizational and social levels.
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Therefore, this book is characterized not by a detailed historical study of energy and energy resources, nor by an a posteriori understanding of the problems that emerged in the past, but rather by an attempt to define what will be the energetic future of the species Homo Sapiens living on the planet. planet Earth, at least for the first half of this century.
An energy future which, as we will see, is much more uncertain than in the past with perhaps only one fundamental certainty: the energy of the "distant" future (with this adjective we mean a fairly long period of time starting from today, from 60 years su) will not be a fossil energy, therefore the 80% of the energy that we use today through these energy sources will have to be replaced with other forms.
In fact, even when historical data will be presented, this will have the main purpose of comparing the past situation with the present one in order to understand the evolution that has taken place during the intervening period and to try to foresee possible future developments with all the probable consequences related. As such, this book is conceived on and for the energy future and has been elaborated taking into account all the aspects previously exposed, precisely to fully take charge of the specific complex relationships of the energy question.
The data taken into consideration refer to 2008, considered as a watershed for various reasons. First, it falls exactly 35 years after 1973, the year of the first oil crisis. Furthermore, the financial and industrial crisis that still pervades the world took place in 2008. It can be said that what will emerge from these four years will be a new vision and conception of society and energy and therefore we will have to reposition ourselves from a different point of view. 2008 is therefore a turning point for understanding the picture of the world of "yesterday" and for understanding which paths will be taken in the future. The facts and events of recent years, from accidents to oil platforms and nuclear plants to social revolutions in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, are changing the landscape towards a new scenario.
All these considerations will be presented with a continuous change of perspective in the course of the chapters and paragraphs, but keeping in mind the complementary and synergistic scenario between energy and research.
Finally, a brief mention of the title. Precisely because of how this book was conceived, the title lends itself to a double interpretation. First, the completeness from the point of view of the sources. As has been said, this book is not a writing on a particular energy source, but embraces them all, from the fossil source still predominant today (oil) to renewable energies, passing through nuclear power and coal. Each energy source then connects to the various aspects of society (politics, economy, history, environment) and research, allowing a "matrix" reading, following either the three parts into which the writing is divided or each individual energy source.
In the same way, the title summarizes the idea of the typical dynamism of the social and energy transition we are witnessing and which will most likely become more and more accentuated in the near future. Therefore, there is a double meaning in the title, of a temporal nature linked to the energy future and of a cognitive nature linked to the vastness of the energy topic.
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However, the real heart of the energy question consists in the answer to the following question, very direct and therefore, in itself, indiscreet and "uncomfortable": which energy for the future?
Yes, but what future? If the distant future will be renewable and green, how to manage this transition that could last even this whole century?
Beyond any a priori idea and judgment that each of us possesses thanks to our cultural background and work and social role, this book has the slight presumption of providing, in addition to what we already know, some clear and distinct elements to provide to complete an overall vision of energy and to be able to respond, in an ever more complete way, to the continuous challenges that the above question obliges us to consider.
PARTE ONE
PARTE ONE
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“ENERGY AND ITS NUMBERS”
CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 1
NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
This first chapter will analyze the non-renewable energy sources used in a significant way by man, therefore those sources that depend on a specific material that is extracted from the earth's soil. Firstly, an overview will be given of the fossil energy sources which still constitute the largest energy source used by humanity, starting with oil and natural gas, ending with coal and wood; furthermore, data relating to nuclear energy deriving from uranium fission (also a mineral extracted and therefore non-renewable) will be presented. For those who think that humanity is about to abandon these resources today, it is enough to note that the share of non-renewable energy sources has actually increased in the last 35 years, passing from 86.5% to 87% of all the energy produced; only by separating the part relating to nuclear power can we see a percentage (but not absolute) decline in fossil fuels.
For each energy source, the data relating to the total energy produced and the total installed power at world, European and Italian level will be presented, also briefly introducing the main applications relating to the particular type of energy source. Furthermore, we will proceed to present the data relating to consumption and production divided by area and by historical evolution, giving an overview of production costs, price evolution and the intrinsic specificity of each individual energy source.
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Petrolium
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Oil was the decisive energy resource for the second industrial revolution, the one that took place during the first decades of the twentieth century. One of the many reasons for the success of this energy source is due to the fact that it is extremely "compact"; a liquid source, easily extractable and quite abundant, which contains in itself a high calorific value (which is the maximum amount of heat that can be obtained from the stoichiometric combustion of a certain mass of combustible substance) and therefore very flexible in use for modern technologies. The evolution of the panorama and supply of energy sources over the last 35 years has caused the percentage of oil in total primary energy to drop from 45% to 34% worldwide; however, considering that the same has substantially doubled - on an annual level from 6,000 Mtoe to about 12,000, where 1 Mtoe (or Mtoe using the acronym in Italian) corresponds to the energy of one million tons of oil equivalent, i.e. to 11.63 TWh - primary energy from oil therefore underwent a 52% increase from 2,700 to 4,100 Mtoe per year. Europe needs an annual primary energy of about 2,000 Mtoe and Italy about 200 Mtoe with a total percentage due to oil of 41% and 43% respectively, therefore above the world average. The increase in total primary energy and the percentage decrease in the weight of oil is easily verifiable visually by observing figure 1 which represents the world's total primary energy by energy source during the twentieth century. On the other hand, as a simple fuel, the percentage of oil has dropped in the last 35 years from 53% to 41% worldwide.
As regards the sectors of use, oil is fundamental in the transport sector, in which the total energy comes from oil sources for a percentage that varies between 96% and 97% for almost all the countries in the world. In fact, the use of petroleum is the basis of the internal combustion engines that drive cars, trucks, buses, ships and planes. In the industrial, tertiary and residential sectors, petroleum products cover 27% of Italy's total energy needs, around 26% of Europe's and 28% worldwide. As far as the production of electricity using oil is concerned, globally the percentage has literally collapsed from 25% in 1973 to the current 7%, with Europe standing at only 4% and Italy at 11%.
Figure 1: World primary energy by energy source during the twentieth century [42].
In the last 35 years, the annual world oil production has increased from 800 a2'4,000 million tons and the percentage share of this production attributable to the countries of the Middle East has decreased from 37% to 31%, mainly in favor of Asian, African and Latin American. To date, there has been an absolute maximum of production during 2008 of about 90 million barrels per day (one barrel of oil is just over 158 litri). At present, the major world producers are shown in table 1. As is known, Italy does not have a significant oil production (so much so that we import 94% of the national requirement) and neither does Europe except forNorge.
Village
Percentage of world production
Russia
12.1%
Saudi Arabia
12.0%
United States
9%
Iran
5.2%
China
4.5%
Mexico
4.2%
Canada
4.0%
United Arab Emirates
3.8%
Venezuela
3.1%
Norway
3.1%
Table 1: Major world oil producers (base year, 2008) [38].
In terms of consumption, the ranking is led by the United States which holds 25% on a global scale followed by China which has 10% and which is on the rise in absolute and percentage terms. The European Union as a whole consumes 19% of world oil production, Italy contributes with a share of 2.1%. This difference between producers and consumers and the physical distance between the various countries has led to the definition of an oil supply chain that can be transported by ship via tankers or by land via special pipelines. In addition, petroleum needs to be refined in special plants to generate various by-products such as petrol, diesel or kerosene.
Being a non-renewable source depending on the size and degree of exploitation of the individual fields, oil itself has a limited duration over time. Rivers of ink have been spilled on this subject and there is an abundance of writings which tend to launch serious alarms on an imminent end of oil as well as those which predict its duration for a long time to come. This enormous variety of interpretations is caused by an objective difficulty: establishing how much oil is left, establishing the extent of reserves and deposits. What we know is that until 2005, man consumed 1,000 billion barrels of oil and that oil demand is expected to grow in the coming years, even if the economic recession has calmed down the demand during 2009 Current statements on oil reserves are not reliable as countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Russiado not provide any data on the current state of exploitation of existing wells or on the capacity and reserves of newly discovered ones. In any case, the largest reserves of "conventional" oil (that is, the one present in the classic deposits of the earth's subsoil) should reside in Saudi Arabia for 23%, Iran 12%, Iraq 10%, Kuwait, Russia, the United States. What we can do is adopt reasonable hypotheses and estimates that also consider an unknown percentage of new fields to be discovered, new types of oil to be exploited and better exploitation of current fields that often use obsolete technologies. Even doing this, the estimates of reserves in existing fields and those to be discovered fluctuates between 1,000 billion barrels in the most pessimistic cases and 10,000 in the most optimistic cases. In terms of duration, this means that, based on current production, oil will run out in 30 years if we consider the most conservative estimates and 300 years in the case of the most abundant ones. However, if we consider that a constant increase in world oil demand is expected, these periods are shortened to about 20 years and 100 years; a good figure that finds many industry experts in agreement is a period of residual life of the oil between 40 and 50 years. In any case, it is evident that the main energy resource of the next century will not be oil and, most likely, it will not be for even part of this century.
Connected to this theme, there is the famous theory of Hubbert which predicts an increase in the extraction capacity during the first part of the exploitation of the energy source up to a peak of maximum production and a subsequent gradual decrease corresponding to the moment in which more than the half of the available energy source (and in this phase there would be a gradual increase in the basic price of the resource). This theory, divided into successive phases, therefore foresees the presence of a maximum production peak (the famous "Hubbert peak") beyond which it is not technically and economically possible to go.
In the case of the less optimistic estimates of world oil reserves, this peak would have already been reached in 2005; conversely, many agree that this maximum will be reached by 2015-2020.
Oil is not actually made up of a single type of hydrocarbon: it would be more correct to speak of "oil" because the calorific value, chemical composition, refining, extraction and treatment costs are all different and vary according to the terrain , the country and the field. This is true both for the so-called conventional oil and above all to distinguish this oil from that coming from specific areas such as Arctic oil, mainly extracted (about 80% of the existing one) under the Arctic ice of Alaska and Siberia, the deepwater oil extracted from the ocean floor at great depths in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Brazil or Angola, the "heavy" oil with a high sulfur content present in Venezuela (95% of all heavy oil is present in this country ) and tar sands oil 60% located in Canada. The percentage of these unconventional oils is still laughable compared to the total production reaching about 5%. However, there are estimated reserves that indicate a total equal to, if not greater than, those of conventional oil; in many cases these reserves are already included in the figures indicating total oil reserves, in particular as regards the more abundant estimates already mentioned. In all these cases the costs of extraction and refining, as well as the costs of the machinery and technologies required are higher than those of conventional oil and the economic yields are generally lower. This is why the extraction of these types of oil becomes interesting only with prices permanently above the threshold of 50-60 dollars a barrel.
The historical cost of oil is shown in the figure 2, inwhich shows the price of a particular type of oil, WTI, quoted on the New York market. From this graph, you can see the various historical phases, starting with the oil crisis of the late seventies with a peak in the price of oil, the subsequent phase of decrease in this price due to the discovery of new deposits and their more intensive exploitation , the increase in value due to the first Gulf War in 1991, the phase of the Nineties in which the quotation was very low, the recent boom period due to various factors including the enormous demand for oil energy by China, India and Brazil, financial speculation, the generalized rise of all raw materials, the period of collapse in prices due to the pressing recession since the last quarter of 2008 and finally the recovery during 2009 and 2010.
Figure 2 historical trend of the price of WTI in $
However, this graph needs some explanations, at least to have a more complete view on a subject so often debated as the price of this energy source:
- first of all, the graph shows the average monthly price for which the maximums and minimums within each month are not highlighted (for example in July 2008 there was an absolute maximum of $147 per barrel for now).
- the quotation should be brought back to inflation, given that the purchasing power of $40 in 1979 is not comparable to that of $40 in 2009. In doing so, it would be seen that the price peak of the seventies is substantially slightly lower than to that achieved in 2008 (and no less than a third as shown in the graph).
- the graph shows the quotation in dollars and therefore does not take into account the currency fluctuations of this currency compared to the others (for example, the old Italian lira or the euro).
- the price refers to WTI, a particular type of very valuable and not very widespread oil and therefore is not representative of what is traded in relation to other types of oil and the so-called non-conventional oils which generally have lower quality, characteristics and prices.
- the quotation refers to "futures" contracts, ie to a reference price of contracts with future expiry (generally a few months) and not to the current price of the real contracts of that day. Furthermore, the producing countries, the oil companies, the refining and distribution companies often agree with framework contracts with prices fixed annually on the basis of the average value of the quotation of the previous year.
- finally, the quotation is that of the New York market. Oil is traded in other financial centers (for example London) with slightly different prices.
That said, the impact of oil price changes varies from country to country, depending more on the tax burden imposed by the state, competition from the refining and distribution network and the overall energy mix used than on the cost of the material itself first. In fact, the United Kingdom has an impact of the variation of this price on the final cost which is only half compared to the Italian one, Germanyonly a fifth and Franceeven less than a tenth.
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Natural gas
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Natural gas is the fossil fuel which, according to current forecasts, is destined to become the main energy source for humanity in the next few years, exceeding the percentage share of oil worldwide. In fact, in the last 35 years, the percentage of natural gas on primary energy has risen from 16% to 24%, passing from 960 Mtoe to 2,800 Mtoe with an increase in use of as much as 191%; the European and Italian percentages are respectively 26% and 36%. As a simple fuel, the share of natural gas has risen in the last 35 years from 19% to 22% worldwide.
In terms of sectors of use, natural gas has very little relevance in the transport sector (only 1%) mainly due to motor vehicles circulating with systems that use this energy source. This percentage is fairly uniform throughout the world, with peaks of up to 2% in the most technologically advanced countries and almost zero in continents such as Africa and Asia. Conversely, natural gas is a primary source in the industrial, tertiary and residential sectors with shares ranging from 31% worldwide to 38% in Europe and even 45% in Italy; also with regard to the production of electricity globally the percentage has grown from 12% in 1973 to the current 17% with Europe standing at 21% and Italy even at 52%. These data show how Europe, and Italy in particular, is choosing a "full throttle" road at least in the short term, data accentuated after the Fukushima accident and the situation in North Africa and the Middle East, in particular the case Libyan.
This has various reasons: first of all, natural gas has a higher calorific value than oil and coal and highly efficient technologies have been implemented for the exploitation of gas-fired power plants, such as combined cycles, cogeneration and district heating. Furthermore, the plants that use natural gas to produce energy are those that require a lower initial investment in proportion to the installed power and can be built in less time than plants that exploit other energy resources. Finally, natural gas is the fossil fuel that produces the least carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy produced, contains almost no ash or heavy metals and has the considerable advantage of being an easily usable fossil fuel with high yields. The Italian percentage due to energy from natural gas is so high due to the progressive replacement over the last 15 years of old coal-fired or oil-fired power plants with gas-fired power plants and the now twenty-year conversion of domestic and industrial heating systems from methane oil.
In the last 35 years, the annual world production of natural gas has increased from 1,200 to 3,000 billion cubic metres. At present, the major world producers are shown in table 2, Italy has a modest production of natural gas which does not even cover national needs given that 87% of the natural gas used by our country is imported.
Village
Percentage of world production
Russia
21.6%
United States
17.6%
Canada
6.3%
Iran
3.4%
Algeria
3.3%
Norway
3.2%
United Kingdom
2.9%
Indonesia
2.6%
Holland
2.3%
Turkmenistan
2.2%
Table 2: World's largest natural gas producers (base year, 2008) [38].
In terms of consumption, the ranking is led by the United States which holds 21% of world natural gas consumption followed by Russia which has 15%. The European Union as a whole consumes 20% of world natural gas production, Italy contributes with a share of 2.9% and is the eighth country in the world for consumption of this resource. This difference between producers and consumers and the physical distance between the various countries has led to the definition of a natural gas supply chain which is transported mainly by land via special gas pipelines and only marginally by sea via LNG tankers. In recent years, this possibility is proving to be more feasible through the construction of natural gas liquefaction terminals installed in the producing countries and the subsequent regasification of the same in the consuming country. In this way, the physical property of natural gas is exploited, which means that it can be compressed 23 times between the gaseous state and the liquid state and can therefore transport large quantities of methane by ship and releases the import of gas from a single country or producer , with obvious benefits of procurement and bargaining power on the price.
As far as reserves are concerned, the same considerations relating to oil apply as it is always a question of making reasonable estimates based on what we have and the discovery of any future deposits. At present there are estimated to be 182'000 billion cubic meters of reserves located mainly in Russia (26%), Iran (15%) and Qatar (14%), this means that with the current consumption, natural gas will run out within 60 years. However, if we take into consideration the constant growth in demand for this energy resource, this duration could be shortened to 45-50 years and could be partly offset by the discovery of new deposits or new types of natural gas that can be extracted (for example from Arctic ice and arctic ant and from the ocean floor). An interesting case regarding the duration of natural gas is given by the very recent discoveries of "shale gas" in Australia.
In any case, as already mentioned for oil, it will be difficult for the energy of the next century to be procured from this fossil fuel which, moreover, has not yet reached its peak of maximum use. The state of reserves based on current production is not uniformly distributed throughout the world: in fact, while the United States has a time of about 11 years to deplete its gas reserves with today's rate of extraction, Russiait has a time of 76 years and Iran even by 278 years. This will probably translate into different percentages of world production than shown in table 2 for the next few years (for example with Iran which will greatly increase its percentage and the United States which will decrease it at the same rate).
As with petroleum products, the properties of natural gas also depend on the type of extraction and the reservoir, therefore it would be more appropriate to talk about the various types of natural gas. In fact, Algerian natural gas has the highest calorific value of about 42,000 kilojoules per normal cubic meter (volume of gas under normal thermodynamic conditions, i.e. temperature 0 °Cand pressure at 1 atmosphere), while the Dutch one has only 33,000 kilojoules.
On the basis of this, the prices of natural gas are also different. It must be said that, although there is no reference index like for oil and no reference market in which to negotiate contracts relating to natural gas, the price of this energy resource has increased significantly in the period between 2002 and 2008, hand in hand with the generalized increase of all raw materials. Not having a single point of reference, many states, gas distributors and users agree with producers with prices fixed by annual framework contracts, taking the price of oil as a reference.
In recent times, however, we are witnessing a progressive detachment of the fluctuations in the price of gas from that of oil, an indication that this raw material is becoming increasingly "heavier" in the energy system and is acquiring its own autonomy.
Coal
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Coal was the fossil fuel responsible for the first industrial revolution, which took place in the first decades of the 19th century thanks to the invention of the steam engine and the first train locomotives. This historic use could lead one to think that coal is not used as an energy source today: conversely,
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Verlag: BookRix GmbH & Co. KG
Tag der Veröffentlichung: 18.04.2023
ISBN: 978-3-7554-3910-3
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