Title Page

 

Title Page

 

PROBABILITY

 

It's Everything You Need It To Be

 

Author Robert Hopkins

 

This book is dedicated to all of the people from A to Z who have joined me along the way and helped turn my possibilities into reality.

 

Cover Art by the Author with thanks to 'dysfunctional requirements'

 

Cover quotes are, in order, by; Shakespeare, Martin Luther King, and Cicero

 

All tables, charts, graphs and other images are by the author unless specifically stated otherwise

 

Foreword

This book was written to demystify the problems that life throws at all of us.

 

This living thing we call life is examined with explanations of just why everything is as it is.

 

A reading of this book will help anyone who has reached that moment in life when they just have to say 'why me!' or even worse 'not again!'.

 

The dialogue questions Religion, Politics and Capitalism and the human beings that have to suffer the consequences of the will to power of a determined few.

 

Major concepts are discussed in connection with understanding decision making at the highest and personal levels and these include: chance, uncertainty, change, probability and unexpected consequences and if you jumble them all together, then chaos.

 

In a world that can be seen as unfathomable clear examples are shown that demonstrate how an individual can navigate the minefield of existence.

 

At the heart of everything we will find probability from within the very small to the amazingly large. Probability as the ultimate creative force that assembles atoms to universes and ourselves.

 

 

 

The author is an ex senior academic who taught at an English University. He specialised in Corporate Risk viewed from the perspective of the collective set of people that make up all organisations.

 

The author has spoken at many national and international conferences and written several books on the subject of Perceptions of Risk.

 

After an academic life the author acted as an adviser and analyst for many of the largest organisations throughout the world including the British National Health Service, a large international consultancy agency, the British National Audit Office, and finally as an external consultant and adviser to the last Labour Government in the United Kingdom, helping to drive social policy and change.

 

 

 

 

Being Human

Introduction

 

 

Being Human (or close)

 

Human beings are one of the few or only animals on the planet that knows there is a future.

 

How that future will unfold is a subject largely residing in the realm of the unknown. I say largely because there may a small number of people that may be about to be shot, hanged, exploded, or expire through illness that have a pretty good idea that their end is up. But it cannot be known with absolute certainty. A stay of execution, a miracle cure or a plane passing overhead explodes and lands on your head can alter a line of probability.

 

One of the main themes we will examine is the idea that nothing is certain. The reason for this statement is that there is a force in the universe that is instilled in every decision, action or event that happens to us or folds around us. It is most unlikely to be FATE; the Newtonian clockwork universe where one thing predictably and inevitably follows another does not occur in nature. There is chaos, unpredictability and always the unknown.

 

So what is this all pervading force?

 

It is PROBABILITY.

 

From the largest objects within the universe to the smallest of the sub-atomic particles, in every atom of your being and every cell in your body, every thought you will ever have, any action that you choose to do is enveloped within a cloud of probability.

 

So what? Well as our daily lives tick by we make decision after decision with the expectation that events will proceed as we plan. It is patently obvious that in any number of cases life does not proceed as we anticipate or would like it to.

 

Is there a reason for this? Yes - it's probability and it's many bedfellows.

 

Probability is deep-seated in our every day language, for example have you heard any of these recently?

 

What's the odds on that happening?

 

Take a chance

 

How possible/likely is that?

 

It's statistically likely

 

There seems to be some variance in the output

 

That's a bit risky

 

It might be the case that...

 

I presume that will turn out alright

 

It's just a random event

 

There's a fair chance of rain

 

You should do this

 

It's probable that...

 

And many, many more

 

OK so probability is around and about. It features often unseen in every single second of our lives. But what exactly is it? Why is it so powerful an influence? And does knowing about it change anything?

 

That's the subject of this book. The argument will be that understanding what the big 'P' is and how to live with it and use it to improve and enhance your life is a worthwhile experience. There is no mystery to it and no complications that cannot be dealt with by a little patience and understanding. No specific skills are required.

It's going to be quite a ride.

 

Open your eyes.

 

Dice Throwing

One Dice or Two with your Life?

 

What's more likely in the USA?

 

1. Dying from gunfire or

 

2. Dying from drowning

 

You are approximately 16 times more likely to be drowned

 

 

 

 

A Statistical Experiment

 

Imagine a thought experiment where you have assembled a number of the best brains on the planet covering a wide variety of subject areas. Shall we say 100 just to get some numbers into this discussion. And we'll set our date as a few hundred years ago.

 

Each person is given one six sided dice (1 to 6) and asked to say what they think their throw will be. They then throw the dice. Many things can happen, but what do you expect to happen?

 

Well to state the obvious it is highly likely that a number of our eminent brains will throw the number they stated they would. Wow! A gasp rolls around the room, for we are indoors. The majority have 'failed' and a few brains stand as the proud owners of a successful dice throw. Are these successful brains, seers, or prophets? Well hang on a moment. Before long there will be a shout of 'I'd like another throw' and this cry will be taken up around the room - no one wants to be the under-dog. The successful brains may well protest, after all they are in a privileged position - so why give this up? However they are in the minority and have no way of enforcing their oneupmanship.

 

There are several ways the group can proceed,

 

Give everyone another throw

 

Give only those who failed the first time another throw

 

Give only those who succeeded the first time another throw

 

Do we anticipate any problems?

 

Oh for sure. Whatever you choose to do.

 

If the gang go for 1 above then some of the round 1 failures will throw 'their' number and happily join the 'winners'. Some of the first round winners will again throw what they said they would and most will not - this second group who failed are now equivalent to anyone else with one correct forecast. There will now be a few individuals who have made 2 correct decisions - dare we call them the elite, after all two correct decisions on the run?!

 

If the players went for 2 above then there will now be a larger group on one correct and a smaller group with nothing to show for their efforts - failures even given a second chance. What a sad bunch - LOSERS!

 

Choice three will give a few players 2 correct rolls on the run.

 

We now have a stratified group on 2,1 or 0 correct choices. Less of the 2's more of the 0's - such is life.

 

In this new society should we now let the 2's make our decisions for us and perhaps suggest that the zeroes set themselves to gathering materials suitable for making more dice. The ones will find work making ever more delightful dice as the 2's dictate.

 

Just a minute. One of the learned persons of the zero or one class suggests that the results of the 2's could just be by chance rather than by using any inherent skills. Gasps all around and hopes for the 1's and 0's. The 2's prepare to defend their position with everything they have.

 

Civil war may be about to break out.

 

Is there anything we can do?

 

What if one of the two's group claimed to have thrown 5,6 or 7 (say) dice in a row and predicted every one - what can we say?

 

How many dice would any one of our brains have to correctly predict in order for us to safely elect them as our great leader?

 

Problems abound in every direction. We need some insight into how they could solve their problems. Imagine the consultancy fees! On second thoughts perhaps we could just work for free to benefit all and sundry.

 

Pick a role for yourself and let's move on to see how impossibly complicated just interpreting a throw of a dice can seem to be and how in practice it's a problem that's not really there at all.

 

There is no smoke or mirrors just probability.

 

 

 

 

Prime Directive

The Prime Directive

 

For all poker players - what's the chances of you living the dream and getting dealt a royal flush with your first five cards? Is it,

 

1 in 100,000

 

1 in 500,000

 

1 in 1,000,000

 

It's actually 1 in over 600,000 and if you got one you'd be staggered. But there are around 100 million poker players worldwide so being dealt that royal flush happens now and again. Playing it is a different matter.

 

Before considering the number of ways that probability can influence our lives we can spend a short time pondering what we actually need from our lives. Learned folk from here and there and right throughout time have considered the essential nature of this living thing we all participate in. Rather than complicate a discussion by examining the history of such thoughts it will be more relevant to work from the ground up - or the tree down if we go back far enough.

 

The argument will derive directly from the observable nature of human reality.

 

When I wake up in the morning I truly hope that,

 

I'm alive and well. There may be exceptions but it is in our nature all things being equal to want to stay in the land of the living

 

In order to achieve the above I'll need to eat, drink, sleep and find shelter

 

Now I've got the first two I'd like it to stay that way therefore safety is vital

 

It'll likely be the case that if I can find others to work with then we'll find strength in numbers and diversity in our skill set

 

In thinking way back to number 1 we'll have noticed there is an opposite sex which we find desirable and wish to cultivate. Children might well arrive into our lives. Life has introduced a strong set of feelings and values which we will share with our children and friends

 

As we value our group of friends and family it would be just wonderful if we all could thrive and flourish. We'll have needed to develop a set of problem solving skills and moral values which will guide our decision making.

 

I'll leave it to others to add or detract from this list but as a working set of areas of life that can be affected by the mighty power and influence of probability the list will suffice - and besides what's it got to do with throwing dice?

 

Everything

 

 

Something is Out to Get You

Something is Out to Get You

 

 

What are you more likely to be killed by?

 

A captive cat

 

A captive venomous snake

 

A captive bear

 

First of all - don't 'captive' any animal and if you do then hopefully it will get you sooner or later. Here are some numbers,

 

1.1 persons are killed each year by a captive big cat, 0.88 by captive venomous snakes, 0.72 by captive elephants, 0.44 by captive non venomous snakes, and 0.16 by captive bears

 

Here is,

 

A case study involving yourself,

 

How good are you at assessing risk?

 

Mini Test

 

What do you think the risk is of anyone,

 

Being killed by a shark?

 

Finding a pearl in an oyster?

 

Getting struck by lightning?

 

Your answer could be in plain English - as in 'no way', 'little chance' or 'highly unlikely'. These answers do convey an opinion but are entirely subjective and this makes comparisons difficult. For example is a 'no way' twice as unlikely as a 'highly unlikely'?

 

Therefore we need a common method of expressing likelihood. The one we will use is one of the most common - that of the odds. There are a number of ways we can express the odds, for example, an evens chance, 1:1, a 50% chance or a 0 to 1 chance. We'll generally use the 0 to 1 method favoured by number crunchers where everything is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. It's simply a percentage divided by 100.

 

Getting back to the fin in the water coming your way and the pearl you have in your hand just as lightning strikes you - what's the most likely?

 

It turns out that,

 

Being killed by a shark is 300 million to 1. That's equivalent to throwing a 6 on a dice 11 times on the run. Just to add some context, if you can throw a dice once every 10 seconds then you can expect to throw 11 6's in a row approximately once every 95 years or so. That's not impossible and it's one reason why sharks kill around 10 people around the world every year. That figure pales into comparison with the 25,000 people per year killed by dog bites and most of these deaths would be from rabies - be careful what you pet.

 

Your chances of finding a pearl in an oyster are zero if you don't look, but for those that do the chances are around 12,000 to 1. That's throwing 5 6's in a row.

 

Do you know anyone that's been struck by lightning? Lee Trevino the great golfer was at odds of 700,000 to 1 when he was struck. Unlucky - certainly but there are documented cases of individuals who have been struck by lightning twice! That's one way of getting a complex as the odds are in the billions to 1.

 

But if the odds are 700,000/1 then with so many people in the world you would expect regular fatalities. This is the case. In the USA there are close to 50 deaths from lightning strike every year. 5% of these are golfers - choose your sport carefully.

 

The odds given above are averages. Averages are fine but can be terribly misleading. Let's reconsider shark attacks. If you are a desert dweller who has no intention of ever entering the sea your odds of being killed by a shark must be very close to zero. It's not impossible it's just difficult to see how that might happen. On the other hand if you are a surfer off an Australian or South African beach then the odds of you finding a hungry shark expressing an interest in you must be appropriately higher. Therefore an average is a blunt tool that uses broad strokes to provide a fuzzy picture of the world as a whole.

 

As we will be examine the power of probability we will need to pin down and define a few of the key terms that affect everyone's life - at all times without let up.

 

 

Chance would be a fine thing

CHANCE

 

 

In ancient times, the result of a coin toss was considered to be an expression of divine will. Romans used to call the game of coin tossing navia aut caput ('ship or head')0

 

Here's an example

 

Conjoined heads of Mark Antony and Octavius facing Octavia and

 

three ships under sail minted in Atratinus Greece 38 BCE

 

 

 

 

A large number of historical figures with a few brains between them have felt the need to say something about 'chance'1

 

 

 

Chance would be a Fine Thing. Anon but often quoted

 

Chance is the providence of adventurers. Napoleon Bonaparte2

 

There is no such thing as no chance. Henry Ford

 

Chance never helps those who do not help themselves. Sophocles

 

Chance favours the prepared mind. Louis Pasteur

 

God does not play dice with the universe. Einstein

 

Einstein's quotation was not about his speculation concerning God's thoughts on gambling. Einstein lived before quantum theory had become an accepted part of mainstream theory and wanted to voice his disagreement with what seemed to be a description of the Universe that allowed a central role for probability and therefore the uncertainty attached to everything.

 

Hawking (to paraphrase) is credited with saying that God certainly does play dice with the Universe it's just that we don't know what the game is (yet).

 

It seems that some mighty thinkers have considered the role of chance and probability on both epic and every-day scales. If we delve into the distant past we can see that chance and probability have struck chords with many.

 

Aristotle stated that the probable is what usually happens.3

 

Cicero believed that Probability is the very guide of life.

 

Democritus thought that everything existing in the universe was the fruit of chance.

 

Laplace considered that the most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability and that probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.

 

 

 

If the above muddies the

Impressum

Verlag: BookRix GmbH & Co. KG

Tag der Veröffentlichung: 31.07.2018
ISBN: 978-3-7438-7642-2

Alle Rechte vorbehalten